Consensus and Iraq's constitution
TODAY'S HISTORIC referendum in Iraq will almost certainly bring ratification of the draft constitution, but it won't be enough to resolve the paralyzing divisions that could lead to civil war.
Millions of Iraqis will vote on the constitution even though they have not seen it, much less studied it. Its provisions have been negotiated and modified right up to the eve of the balloting. Many Iraqis, weary of terrorism and violence, will vote "yes" simply in hopes that it will produce a government able to bring stability.
But Iraq's Sunni Arab minority will largely vote "no," fearing the draft constitution will entrench their disempowerment and, by radically decentralizing power and revenue to Kurdish and Shiite regions, eventually break apart the country.
For weeks, the constitutional referendum has been shaping up as a polarizing replay of the Jan. 30 parliamentary elections, when almost all Kurds voted for the Kurdish coalition, most Shiites voted for the United Iraqi Alliance (a coalition of Shiite Islamist parties) and most Sunnis boycotted. In this case, the Kurds and Shiites overwhelmingly support a constitution mainly drafted by their parties, while most Sunni political, tribal and religious groups have been campaigning against the document.
The constitution's Sunni opponents will likely fail. Until recently, it seemed they could muster the two-thirds "no" vote in three provinces required to defeat it. But just three days ago, last-minute negotiations among Kurdish and Shiite representatives and the most prominent Sunni party (among a badly fragmented array of them) brought what was hailed as a "breakthrough" compromise.
The new deal moderates the provisions for de-Baathification, reaffirms Iraqi unity and sets up a panel in the new parliament with the power to propose broad revisions to the constitution. This compromise addressed some Sunni Arab concerns, eased the climate of polarization and enabled some Sunni politicians to call for a "yes" vote.
The Bush administration, and particularly its skillful ambassador in Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, deserve credit for bringing the Sunnis into the constitutional deliberations earlier this summer, after their electoral boycott had largely shut them out of parliament. Khalilzad tried to facilitate a broad constitutional bargain, and then, when the constitution was finally adopted by parliament without Sunni support in August, he fought until this final moment for wider constitutional consensus.
