THERE IS NO WAY to assess the signals and counter-signals, the coded winks that have passed in these last weeks between Karl Rove, James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh and President Bush, without arriving at this inevitable conclusion: It's all about Roe vs. Wade.
How strange.
A 30-odd-year-old Burger court opinion -- hardly singular compared with dozens of cases that came out of the Supreme Court during the 1960s and '70s. A holding no more dramatic than Lawrence vs. Texas, the gay sodomy case decided in 2003; no more startling than Kelo vs. New London, this term's eminent domain case, and no more consequential than Bush vs. Gore.
Yet with the nomination of Harriet E. Miers to the court, the political right (or at least a very vocal part of it) is laser-focused on -- and singularly determined to redress -- only Roe. The reason for this situation, and the political fallout from it, go a long way toward explaining the sudden implosion of American conservatism this October. Roe vs. Wade has garnered more than its fair share of attention over the last few nomination hearings. But, largely because of the administration's decision to make it the centerpiece of the Miers nomination, it is, right now, the only game in town.
But first, consider this: Roe is quickly becoming legally irrelevant. The number of abortions in the United States has fallen dramatically in the last two decades and will continue to do so with the increasing availability of better contraception and technologies to terminate unwanted pregnancies earlier. For another thing, whether or not there is a federal constitutional right to abortion is by no means the last word in the abortion wars. The fight has moved, in recent years, to the state legislatures, which have enacted significant restrictions on the procedure -- from parental notification laws to bans on so-called partial-birth abortions. Roe stopped being where the real abortion action was a long time ago.
And finally, consider the polling data: Most Americans support Roe. The most recent Gallup Poll -- from August of this year -- shows that 54% of respondents consider themselves to be pro-choice, while 38% think of themselves as pro-life. A Gallup Poll taken last July showed that 68% of Americans do not want Roe overturned, and only 29% do. The most interesting aspect of that polling data, however, is this: These numbers have shifted almost not at all in 30 years. Despite all the screaming and sharpening of pitchforks since Roe came down in 1973, not a lot of minds have changed on the subject.
