Move Is a Reflection of a Weakened President
WASHINGTON — George W. Bush's first term was a tutorial on how a determined and aggressive president can multiply his strength and drive sweeping change from a narrow electoral base.
His second term increasingly looks like the opposite: a bitter lesson in how swiftly a president's influence can erode and how quickly presidential weakness can breed division in his party.
The withdrawal Thursday of Harriet E. Miers' nomination to the Supreme Court amid a revolt from conservatives underscored the stark message sent by the failure of Bush's Social Security restructuring plan and a series of recent uprisings by congressional Republicans -- the president no longer can consistently impose his will on his party, much less the Congress or the country, with his job approval ratings stuck at 45% or lower.
"This is a very simple political equation: presidents govern based on the perception of their clout," said GOP pollster Bill McInturff. "In most of Bush's first term, when he was at 60%-plus in his job approval, most people didn't want to cross the president. And when you are in the range he is now, people feel a little emboldened."
Beset by these dynamics, Bush is likely to return to the strategy he's stressed throughout his presidency and look for ways to reassure and energize his conservative base, Republican insiders say.
"The key thing for us is to stabilize the situation and repair the breach with conservatives," said one GOP strategist familiar with White House thinking, who asked not to be identified when discussing administration affairs.
As part of that effort, the strategist said, Bush is likely to select a replacement for Miers whom "conservatives can rally around."
The selection of a nominee with a clear conservative record -- such as federal appellate court judges J. Michael Luttig, Priscilla R. Owen or Edith H. Jones -- would meet the right's demand for a confirmation fight with Democrats that would energize the conservative grass roots.
But at a time when Bush's approval ratings among independents have fallen to the lowest point of his presidency, a polarizing fight to fill the seat of moderate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor could further narrow the president's appeal.
"You may solve one problem and exacerbate another," said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota who is writing a book on Bush's leadership style.
