U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones remembers attending an emergency training session in August 2001 with the Federal Emergency Management Agency that discussed the three most likely catastrophes to strike the United States.
First on the list was a terrorist attack in New York. Second was a super-strength hurricane hitting New Orleans. Third was a major earthquake on the San Andreas fault.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Saturday September 10, 2005 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 National Desk 2 inches; 75 words Type of Material: Correction
Earthquake risk -- An article Thursday in Section A about the earthquake risk in California referred to Fred Turner of the state Seismic Safety Commission as Frank Turner. The article also said a state report concluded that 7,500 school buildings would "perform poorly" in the event of a major quake. The actual quote from the report is that such buildings are "not expected to perform as well" as other buildings and "require detailed seismic evaluation."
Now that the first two have come to pass, she and other earthquake experts are using the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina as an opportunity to reassess how California would handle a major temblor.
Jones, scientist-in-charge for the geological survey's Southern California Earthquake Hazards Team, and other experts generally agree that California has come a long way in the last two decades in seismic safety.
In Los Angeles, all but one of 8,700 unreinforced masonry buildings -- considered the most likely to collapse in a major quake -- have been retrofitted or demolished. The state spent billions after the 1994 Northridge quake to retrofit more than 2,100 freeway overpasses, reporting this week that only a handful remain unreinforced.
Despite these improvements, however, officials believe that a major temblor could cause the level of destruction and disruption seen over the last week on the Gulf Coast.
More than 900 hospital buildings that state officials have identified as needing either retrofitting or total replacement have yet to receive them, and the state recently agreed to five-year extensions to hospitals that can't meet the 2008 deadline to make the fixes. More than 7,000 school buildings across the state would also be vulnerable during a huge temblor, a state study found, though there is no firm timetable for upgrading the structures.
And four Los Angeles Police Department facilities -- including the Parker Center headquarters in downtown -- worry officials, because they were built to primitive earthquake standards and might not survive a major temblor. Only two of the LAPD's 19 stations meet the most rigorous quake-safe rules.
"We could be dealing with infrastructure issues a lot like New Orleans," Jones said. "Our natural gas passes through the Cajon Pass.... Water -- three pipelines -- cross the San Andreas fault in an area that is expected to go in an earthquake." Railway lines are also vulnerable, she said.
