WASHINGTON — In the wake of this week's shaky international agreement on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, diplomats and armscontrol specialists agreed on one central point: Achieving similar progress with Iran will be even tougher.
North Korea is considered a hermit state whose nuclear threat represents its only leverage on the outside world. But Iran can influence an array of issues central to the Bush administration's Middle East policy, and by cultivating influential partners such as Russia, China and India, it has managed to build a buffer against U.S. pressure.
Tehran's influence over well-organized militant groups in the Middle East such as Islamic Jihad gives it the potential to disrupt the U.S.-backed IsraeliPalestinian peace process at an especially sensitive stage. And Iraqi Shiite militants, many of whom are believed to be funded by Iran, already have demonstrated an ability to challenge the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad.
Historical baggage, including America's backing of the former shah and the prolonged hostage siege at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, deepens the mutual suspicion between the U.S. and Iran. At the same time, powerful sentiments against Iran on Capitol Hill limit the administration's ability to maneuver, these experts said.
North Korea agreed in principle this week to dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for normalized relations with the United States and help with a future civilian nuclear energy program. However, North Korea immediately assailed the Bush administration, saying it would never surrender its weapons without first receiving a light-water nuclear reactor.
"Iran is a much tougher climb diplomatically [than North Korea]," said Michael Krepon, a onetime official of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and president emeritus of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank specializing in arms control.
The growing appetite of fast-growing Asian markets for Iranian oil also acts to counter Western leverage with Tehran by leading key nations to balk at supporting punitive measures.
Over the last four years, 40% of new oil demand globally has stemmed from East Asia, mainly China, said Frank Verrastro, director of the energy program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
U.S. officials pressed forward Wednesday with their effort at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna to bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council for breaches of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
