GOP Takes One Step Forward, One Step Back

WASHINGTON — John G. Roberts Jr. is in. Tom DeLay, at least temporarily, is out.

That contrast encapsulates the uneven advance of Republican Party efforts to build a lasting conservative majority in U.S. politics.

After the 2004 election, which consolidated their hold on the White House and Congress, Republicans have suffered through a year of missteps and bad news -- such as this week's indictment of DeLay, the House majority leader from Texas -- that have stirred Democratic hopes of a revival.

And yet, even as poll numbers sag for the GOP, Republicans continue to entrench their control of federal power -- a progression spotlighted by Thursday's lopsided Senate confirmation of Roberts, who as chief justice may tilt the Supreme Court rightward for a quarter century or more.

These dueling developments capture a Republican ascendancy that looks enduring from some angles and fragile from others -- like concrete that hasn't quite set.

In some respects, the GOP appears close to establishing a lasting political edge -- not seen since the days of President McKinley more than a century ago -- with interlocking advantages that create formidable barriers to a Democratic resurgence.

But approval ratings in polls for the GOP-controlled Congress and President Bush are similar to those for the Democratic-controlled Congress and President Clinton prior to the 1994 electoral landslide that put the GOP in charge of the House and the Senate.

"Clearly, the majority doesn't seem to be as stable as [Republicans] thought, but whether this is a blip and doesn't rearrange the fundamental structural foundations for a Republican edge is still to be answered," said Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at North Carolina State University and author of the new book "Elephant's Edge: The Republicans as a Ruling Party."

The biggest cause for Republican optimism is a series of long-term political and demographic changes that have strengthened their position.

The most important may be the continued shift of population toward the Southern and western red states where the GOP is strongest. After the 2000 census, seven electoral college votes shifted from blue states that Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore won that year to states that Bush carried.

Demographer William Frey has calculated that the states Bush won in 2004 will gain another four electoral college votes after the 2010 census. Long-term population projections show the tilt continuing with big gains likely in Texas, Arizona and Florida -- each of which Bush carried handily.