In Democratically Brittle Peru, Fear Turns Up on the Ballot

LIMA, Peru — Peruvians cast ballots today to elect a president and national legislature amid deep uncertainty and even fear about who will prevail among three very distinct candidates: An ex-army officer with a questionable human rights record; a former president whose administration left the country in a shambles; and a female lawyer widely viewed as an instrument of the elite.

The boisterous campaign has proceeded with plenty of name-calling and mudslinging but no major violence. Still, deep anxiety about the future is evident in a democratically brittle nation that may be poised to embark on a radical new course.

"There is a very strong war of fears being waged," Luis Benavente, director of the polling arm of Lima University, told reporters here last week. "Fear was a factor that came to the forefront in this campaign."

Many seem intent on casting their ballots against a candidate they fear rather than for one they passionately support. Some worry, for instance, that the election could lead to instability or a military government.

"Most voters have little enthusiasm, few convictions and are far from euphoric" about their choices, said Jorge Bruce, a political analyst here.

The three front-runners are Ollanta Humala, the former army man; Alan Garcia, one-time darling of the Latin American left whose 1985-90 presidency ended with hyperinflation and a guerrilla war; and Lourdes Flores, a center-right lawyer and former congresswoman vying to become the nation's first female president.

Outgoing President Alejandro Toledo has followed an aggressive free market, pro-Washington agenda that failed to keep its promise of significantly reducing poverty -- even as the economy grew briskly. Resentment against the free market model and disgust with traditional politics are fueling the "outsider" campaign of Humala, giving him an edge, experts say.

Nonetheless, polls suggest that none of the three is likely to garner the 50% needed for outright victory. The top two finishers would meet in a runoff next month. One recent poll placed the three in a virtual dead heat, each with slightly more than a quarter of the vote. More than a dozen minor candidates split the rest.

But surveys indicate that the surest bet to pass to the second round is Humala, 43, a fervid nationalist who has never held elected office. He led a populist, capitalist-bashing campaign that worries investors and Washington. The ascension of the retired lieutenant colonel would bring to office another ally of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, an adversary of the Bush administration, and would continue the continent's leftward drift.