WASHINGTON — President Bush, who has defined his dealings with Iran in terms of confrontation since the early days of his administration, may have been drawn one step closer to a showdown after Tehran asserted Tuesday that it had successfully produced enriched uranium that can be used as nuclear fuel.
Through years of tough talk and veiled threats, Bush and members of his administration have been the chief proponents of ratcheting up international pressure to persuade Iran's leaders to accede to demands that they forswear atomic weapons and steer clear of nuclear enrichment work. In its new national security manifesto, the White House warned in stark terms last month that diplomatic efforts to halt Iran's nuclear program must succeed "if confrontation is to be avoided."
But Tuesday's announcement is certain to raise questions not only about Bush's approach to the Iranian nuclear issue, but also about other U.S. judgments, such as whether U.S. intelligence agencies are able to accurately assess Iran's capabilities and intentions.
U.S. officials have based their approach toward Iran on a conviction that sustained pressure from the world community would force the Iranian leadership to back down, arguing that this has long been Iran's pattern.
Iran's announcement "seems to negate that idea," said Ray Takeyh, an Iran specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"What they're trying to say is, 'That type of pressure isn't going to work, and we'll meet pressure with our own countermeasures,' " Takeyh said.
Bush administration officials have rejected suggestions that they negotiate directly with Iran. But they have pursued a diplomatic course from a distance, backing efforts by European negotiators while constantly criticizing Iran, refusing to disavow U.S. military options and pushing for international sanctions by the United Nations.
If that approach has proven ineffective, Bush is likely to face questions from across the political spectrum about whether a different approach -- softer or harder -- may have been better.
The Iranians insist their only objective is to develop a peaceful, civilian nuclear energy program. And they say they have now succeeded in enriching uranium to the concentration needed for civilian nuclear power generation. It is unclear whether they yet have the kind of mastery of the process they would need to enrich uranium on an industrial scale necessary to eventually produce nuclear weapons fuel.
