GOP Sees Few `Safe' House Seats
WASHINGTON — Election day was five long months away, but Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) decided to air her first television campaign ad early to set the tone for what promised to be a tough reelection fight.
But when the ad was broadcast in June, it contained an embarrassing error. Pryce's first name was spelled "Deboarah." The blunder was especially surprising coming from the camp of a seasoned, seven-term incumbent and senior member of the House Republican leadership.
When it comes to hardball campaigning, however, Pryce is something of a rookie. She has not faced a serious challenge since she was first elected to Congress in 1992. But that has abruptly changed this year -- for her and for some other House Republicans accustomed to coasting to reelection.
With the political winds blowing squarely against the GOP, several senior lawmakers are facing unusually serious challenges that have forced them to dust off campaign tools that, in some cases, are a bit rusty.
In California, Rep. John T. Doolittle (R-Roseville) has agreed to debate a Democratic opponent for the first time in more than a decade. Rep. Richard W. Pombo (R-Tracy) has expanded his campaign staff beyond what had been a tight inner circle -- and spent more money in the process.
In Connecticut, GOP Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, in her 24th year in Congress, has already aired five expensive television ads. In New York, supporters of Republican Rep. James T. Walsh of Syracuse goofed at one event by distributing 4-year-old campaign literature.
With Democrats needing a 15-seat gain to win control of the House, most of their top targets are junior GOP lawmakers or perennially vulnerable incumbents in swing districts. But they almost assuredly will have to beat more-entrenched Republicans like Pryce to win a majority.
Amy Walter, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, sees such incumbents as "canaries in the mineshaft" whose fate will determine whether the GOP loses control of the House.
When Republicans won the chamber in 1994, their victory was built in part on the surprise defeat of several senior Democratic incumbents, such as then-House Speaker Tom Foley of Washington.
Republicans have one advantage that Democrats did not have in 1994. Then, many of the party's incumbents did not realize they were in trouble until it was too late to do much about it. This year, GOP leaders already have sensed political danger and urged lawmakers to gear up.
