"It's hard to forecast the future," said E. Floyd Kvamme, a longtime Silicon Valley venture capitalist and a technology advisor to President Bush. It's dangerous, he said, to assume "certain things are going to happen or not happen."
A convergence of events has made 2006 a hectic year for technology policy.
The controversy over domestic spying and the disappearance of a laptop computer containing the personal information of 26.5 million military veterans has sharply increased interest in electronic privacy and data security legislation. Bush's initiative to increase U.S. competitiveness has led to bills to increase high-tech research funding and tax credits.
The dramatic growth and popularity of social networking sites has spurred a new round of proposals to deter online sexual predators. And Congress and the Federal Communications Commission are looking to reallocate large amounts of radio-wave spectrum, which companies covet for new wireless devices, because of the 2009 deadline set earlier this year for the conversion to digital TV.
Then there's the biggest factor: the first major telecommunications legislation in a decade, which would make it easier for phone companies to offer television over their networks.
The fight over House and Senate telecom bills has sparked an estimated $1 million a day in lobbying and advertising by companies and advocacy groups. Urged on by politically powerful phone companies, Congressional leaders have been actively pushing the legislation. Recognizing the momentum, advocates for a variety of technology issues -- including a new Internet tax moratorium and anti-piracy measures -- are trying to tack on amendments.
But fear of unintended consequences and difficulties grasping the highly technical issues are making some in Congress hesitant to support technology legislation.
For example, Google, Amazon.com Inc. and other major Internet companies have led a push for strong regulations to prevent phone and cable companies from charging fees for higher-speed delivery of video and other data-heavy online content. The issue, known as "network neutrality," has been one of the major technology battles in Congress this year.
But legislation to enact those regulations failed to pass the House and a key Senate committee in recent weeks after many lawmakers said the issue hadn't been adequately explained.
