What's scarier than snakes on a plane? How about Internet buzz about a movie called "Snakes on a Plane" that falls short of the media hype?
For months, New Line Cinema has been basking in movie marketer's heaven: an avalanche of excited Web chatter and blogs about its new thriller "Snakes on a Plane" starring Samuel L. Jackson. A studio couldn't hope for better pre-release publicity. Not only did the unusual title grab attention, but Jackson's fans were all over themselves about his profanity-laden line of dialogue in the R-rated film, which goes: "I've had it with these %#@*&{circ}% snakes on this %#@*&{circ}% plane!"
But with the film's debut Thursday night at 10, New Line and rival studios are paying close attention to how "Snakes on a Plane" fares against its competition -- the new teen comedy "Accepted" and the hit Will Ferrell comedy "Talladega Nights," which has been in theaters for three weeks.
Audience surveys done for the studios -- known as tracking -- tell a conflicting story. On the one hand, prerelease tracking polls this week showed that "Snakes on a Plane" had overall awareness among 87% of those surveyed compared with 61% for "Accepted." On the other, "Accepted" is the first choice of 13% of young males -- a key demographic for each film -- compared with 11% for "Snakes on a Plane." A week ago, "Snakes" was trailing "Accepted" in both awareness and definite interest among moviegoers.
Uncertainty about the fate of "Snakes" feeds into larger questions about the relationship of buzz to box office in the industry.
"I certainly don't think Internet buzz has been a reliable predictor of box office," said Adam Fogelson, who heads marketing at Universal Pictures. "You want a community of like-minded people around the country or the world, and the Internet is a great place to do that. But a lot of online discussion does not necessarily translate into box office."
Informal interviews with young potential moviegoers conducted by phone this week by The Times provides contrasting opinions on whether they pay attention to the "Snakes on a Plane" Internet juggernaut.
Jonathan Grossman, 22, of Baltimore is typical of some when he notes that from what he knows already about the movie through commercials, it seems "over the top."
" ... I wouldn't pay to go see it," Grossman said. "I probably wouldn't even rent it at Blockbuster. Just the concept seems a little bit ridiculous."
Jenn McClean, 22, of Boston said: "It's something my husband would like. I haven't looked at it enough, but I would probably end up seeing it because that's something he would like."
Krista Dembo, 16, of Stewartstown, Pa., who would need to be accompanied by an adult if she went to see the R-rated film, said she hasn't noticed her friends talking about the film. "It looks kind of violent," she said. "I'm not a violent-type person. I'm pretty much into chick flicks and comedies." A regular visitor to teen-friendly website MySpace.com, Dembo said she hasn't noticed chatter about the film there.
For Hollywood studios, the Internet is still largely mysterious territory that holds much promise as a marketing tool but also pitfalls.
"I think we continue to learn something about the medium every day," said Gerry Rich, president of worldwide marketing at Paramount Pictures. "Still, it's difficult to quantify whether [Internet buzz] represents the masses ... or a segment of the population that may or may not be indicative of the general public."
Universal's Fogelson noted that the studio has been disappointed by three recent films that had plenty of Internet buzz before their releases.
One of those films was "Serenity," a spinoff of the sci-fi/western TV series "Firefly." Fogelson said that going in, the film had actively engaged an online community of "brown-coats," the term used for fans of the TV series. "We created a marketing campaign largely around the Internet," he recalled. "We screened the film early. There was lots of chatter on the Internet about the film." Yet its domestic box office was a lackluster $25.5 million.
Likewise, the studio had counted on the Internet to boost the box office prospects for director George A. Romero's "Land of the Dead." The thinking was that Romero had a built-in fan base going back to his 1968 cult classic, "Night of the Living Dead." Still, last summer's release garnered only $20.7 million at the domestic box office.
There was also massive online interest in the comedy-horror movie "Slither," but the film, released in March, grossed only $7.8 million in North America.
But Michael A. Vorhaus, managing director of Frank N. Magid Associates, a Sherman Oaks-based media consumer research and consulting firm that works with studios, exhibitors and TV stations on duties as varied as testing pilots and advertising, said the studios would be mistaken to downplay the Internet.
