MEXICO CITY — A line of armored vehicles awaits outside Mexico's Congress building. Most are brand-new and have never seen action. But many Mexicans wonder whether their menacing presence is a harbinger of this divided country's future.
Federal authorities deployed the tanks to prevent supporters of leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from shutting down Mexico's legislature in a bid to pressure the Federal Electoral Tribunal to order a full recount of all 41 million votes in the disputed July 2 presidential election.
On Monday, the first and only street battle of Mexico's election controversy erupted outside Congress when federal police arrived to disperse supporters of Lopez Obrador. A handful of lawmakers were bruised in the melee.
"What happened at the legislative palace may be a rehearsal for what we can expect after the tribunal renders its final decision," said Leo Zuckermann, a political analyst here. "Lopez Obrador knows he won't win before the tribunal.... What he is trying to accomplish now is to start a social movement."
The tribunal's seven judges began meeting privately Thursday to debate the results of a partial recount of 4 million votes. They have until early September to declare a winner, but a decision is expected sooner.
Conservative candidate Felipe Calderon led Lopez Obrador in the initial count by 244,000 votes. According to news reports and figures provided by the two campaigns, the partial recount will narrow Calderon's lead -- but only by 7,000 to 13,000 votes.
Legal experts say the tribunal probably will not order a full recount, although the judges could still annul the election and order a new vote for next year.
Some members of Lopez Obrador's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, have said they will launch a sustained nationwide program of civil disobedience if the tribunal declares Calderon the winner.
Gerardo Fernandez Norona, a Lopez Obrador aide, said Wednesday that the candidate's supporters would take a position of "rebellion in the face of authority" and might encourage Mexicans to stop paying taxes. However, Ferandez Norona is known as a loose cannon, and some dismissed his statements as mere bluster.
As the election saga reaches its endgame, there are also indications that some PRD members would balk at taking the radical actions that others in their party favor.
