The job she should want

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM has it that Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign is an absolute certainty. But in Washington, many believe otherwise, fearing for her prospects and those of the Democratic Party she represents. And now there are fascinating hints that these forces are aligning to offer her a dignified way to demur from an ugly and ill-fated presidential effort, while still emerging a national leader.

Earlier this month, Steve Clemons' blog, the Washington Note, quoted highly placed sources as saying that Democratic Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid had pulled Clinton aside and offered her a deal: Eschew the presidential campaign and succeed Reid as leader of the Senate Democrats in 2009. Reid's office, of course, strenuously denies the claim. But Clemons, the director of the New America Foundation's American Strategy program, is no fabulist, and this week, similar speculation showed up in Time magazine.

It's obvious that someone wants word of this bargain to be fruitful and multiply. After all, it offers Clinton a way to disengage from an increasingly uphill effort, and it simultaneously floats the image of her in the minority or majority leader's seat, a position she's uniquely well-suited for.

Before running through her qualifications for the job, it's worth explaining why she'd want it in the first place. After all, Clinton is the unquestioned front-runner for the Democratic nomination for president. She commands an unmatched war chest, an unrivaled collection of political talent (headed by her legendarily adroit husband) and star power that most putative candidates can only dream of.

But if her candidacy gleams in theory, its reality looks a little dimmer each day. Clinton is a polarizing figure, commanding a strong base of support but little room for growth. A CBS News poll in late July found her favorables at 32% and her unfavorables at 39% -- a worrying ratio for a figure so well established in the public mind.

Many of her potential competitors score far better on likeability indices, notably John Edwards, who's turned his charm into a 4% lead in the crucial early presidential caucus state, Iowa. More troubling for Clinton, Democratic leaders have shuffled the caucus and primary schedule, placing Nevada after Iowa and South Carolina after New Hampshire. Nevada is essentially one big union town, mainly through the hotel workers union Unite Here, which Edwards is closely allied with. Then comes New Hampshire, where Clinton is ahead by single digits, and then South Carolina -- Edwards' birth state, which he won in 2004. It's a series tailor-made for Edwards, and thus daunting for Clinton.