Afghanistan war nears `tipping point'

The insurgents include remnants of the Taliban, the austere Islamist movement that ruled Afghanistan for five years and gave shelter to Osama bin Laden and other members of his Al Qaeda terrorist network. The volatile brew also includes competing warlords, part-time fighters, recruits from the growing ranks of the poor and unemployed, and disaffected youth, often graduates of Talibaninspired religious seminaries.

Viktor Korgun, an analyst with the Russian Academy of Sciences who has had long experience in Afghan affairs, describes the insurgents as "a fresh new generation ... copying the skills and ways of the armed resistance groups in Iraq."

"Their support network has improved, and in some areas they've been able to operate and control roads and villages and the like," said Seth Jones, a counterinsurgency expert at the Rand Corp. who was recently in Afghanistan for field research. "The Taliban have created a shadow government in a number of provinces -- people going to Taliban governors rather than centrally appointed governors on rule-of-law issues."

The Taliban holds sway in much of the border province of Zabol, several Afghan and Western officials say. And in other provinces, including Kandahar and Helmand, the insurgents operate freely outside major cities and towns.

A number of interlocking factors have contributed to the insurgent comeback:

The U.S.-backed government of President Hamid Karzai has been slow in asserting itself throughout the country.

Afghanistan's drug trade has also revived at an explosive rate. Opium cultivation rose this year by nearly 60%, according to the United Nations drug agency and the World Bank, and officials say drug money has become a driving force behind the insurgency.

In much of the country, the lack of security has severely stunted development projects, which in turn has fostered widespread disillusionment. Particularly in dirt-poor rural areas, many Afghans believe their daily lot has improved little since Taliban times, and tend to cast the blame on the same Americans they once hailed as liberators.

"People previously were repelled by the fanaticism of the Taliban, but anger at Americans is growing," said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general who is now an independent analyst. "And ultimately, they would prefer that their lives be secure. It's a survival instinct."

A European security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that for insurgents, fomenting even low-level instability carries big payoffs.