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THE CONFLICT IN IRAQ: TROOP LEVELS

Generals Say More Troops Needed In Iraq

Commanders made their decision before meeting with Defense Secretary Gates.

Strategy Not Yet Clear

December 23, 2006|Julian E. Barnes | Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — Top U.S. military commanders in Iraq have decided to recommend a "surge" of fresh American combat forces, eliminating one of the last remaining hurdles to proposals being considered by President Bush for a troop increase, a defense official familiar with the plan said Friday.

The approval of a troop increase plan by top Iraq commanders, including Gen. George W. Casey Jr. and Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, comes days before Bush unveils a new course for the troubled U.S. involvement in Iraq. Bush still must address concerns among some Pentagon officials and overcome opposition from Congress, where many Democrats favor a blue-ribbon commission's recommendation for the gradual withdrawal of combat troops.

But the recommendation by commanders in Iraq is significant because Bush has placed prime importance on their advice. The U.S. command in Iraq decided to recommend an increase of troops several days ago, prior to meetings in Baghdad this week with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, the defense official said.

Gates, who returned to Washington on Friday, will join Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley in meetings with President Bush today at Camp David. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said the meeting was part of the Iraq strategy review, and Bush was not expected to make a final decision on the administration's new policy.

Commanders have been skeptical of the value of increasing troops, and the decision represents a reversal for Casey, the highest-ranking officer in Iraq. Casey and Gen. John P. Abizaid, the top commander in the Middle East who will step down in March, have long resisted adding troops in Iraq, arguing that it could delay the development of Iraqi security forces and increase anger at the United States in the Arab world.

The defense official said commanders had not determined the exact number of extra troops they would request.

Military officers have debated an increase of about 20,000, about five extra combat brigades. But while some officers think five extra brigades will be difficult to muster, others believe more troops will be required.

"People are warming to the realization that some sort of surge is necessary," said another military official.

The officials spoke on the condition their names not be revealed because Bush has not announced a final decision on his Iraq policy.

Bush recently called for an increase in the overall size of the Army and Marine Corps. But he stressed he had not made a decision on whether to send more troops to Iraq and wanted to speak further with Gates.

Some members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain skeptical of a surge, unconvinced that it will yield more positive results than other recent military operations to secure Baghdad or Iraq.

But other military officers have said that a buildup in troops is America's last chance to roll back the sectarian violence, neutralize the insurgency and strengthen the government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki.

Many military officers maintain that there is no middle ground strategy for Iraq, and that America must either increase the force -- gambling that the military can impose a measure of security on Iraq -- or else begin to withdraw its forces.

Those skeptical about the efficacy of an increase argue that any new troops must be given clear instructions. However, defense officials say the U.S. commanders in Iraq have not settled on what that mission should be, although they are expected to decide before calling up new units.

Gates may have been alluding to that on Friday, when he told reporters he has asked Casey to make specific recommendations on how to improve security in Iraq and to work with Iraqi military leaders to "put flesh on those bones" of a new security plan.

"There is still some work to be done between Gen. Casey and his counterparts in the Iraqi government," Gates said. "But I do expect to give a report to the president on what I have learned and my perceptions."

Some officials remain concerned that the command in Iraq has not drafted a new battle plan or begun to develop new operations. These officials worry that even with extra troops, the American forces will continue using existing tactics, which have failed to stem sectarian violence.

Within the military, some officers favor using a buildup of forces to confront radical Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, perhaps by moving forces into Sadr City, the Shiite slum in Baghdad where he has his political base.

Other military leaders say a larger force should be used to improve the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy and take more effective measures to protect Iraqis. These officers favor a plan developed by retired Gen. Jack Keane and Frederick Kagan, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, to use the extra troops to secure mixed Shiite and Sunni neighborhoods where most of the sectarian violence is taking place.

Which mission is selected could determine the size of the troop increase.

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