Which mission is selected could determine the size of the troop increase.
"If it is a surge to take on Sadr, that is one size. If it is to do something else, that is another size surge," said the military official.
Which mission is selected could determine the size of the troop increase.
"If it is a surge to take on Sadr, that is one size. If it is to do something else, that is another size surge," said the military official.
Iraqi politics would be a key factor in deciding how to use extra U.S. military force. American diplomats are trying to engineer an ouster of Sadr's political faction from the government and are trying to help set up a moderate coalition of Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites that would be more willing to confront Sadr's militias.
The U.S. military now considers forces loyal to Sadr to be the top threat to the security of Iraq.
Sadr controls 30 seats in the Iraqi parliament and six cabinet seats in the current government, although the Sadr loyalists have been boycotting the government in protest of Maliki's meeting with Bush in Jordan in November.
Military officials were dismayed that one of the country's most influential clerics, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, did not immediately back efforts to establish a new coalition government. If Sistani insists that Sadr remain within the Shiite coalition, it would represent a blow to the U.S. goal of marginalizing the radical cleric.
"The goals are tied to the palace intrigue," the military official said. "We are watching them carefully."
A troop buildup has sparse political support, but is backed by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), considered a front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. Key Democratic lawmakers and some Pentagon officials, however, remain skeptical. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), incoming chairman of the armed services committee, is among those advocating a timetable for withdrawal -- not a buildup of forces.
Several members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff also have expressed reservations. Because the Joint Chiefs are not part of the military's formal chain of command, the recommendation to increase or decrease will go from commanders in Iraq to Gates and then to Bush. But the Joint Chiefs retain an important advisory role.
Gen. James T. Conway, the new commandant of the Marine Corps and a member of the Joint Chiefs, emphasized the drawbacks of adding troops in public comments last week.
"We would fully support, I think, as the Joint Chiefs, the idea of putting more troops into Iraq if there is a solid military reason for doing that, if there is something to be gained," he said. "We do not believe that just adding numbers for the sake of adding numbers -- just thickening the mix -- is necessarily the way to go."
Like Conway, Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, the Army chief of staff, has said extra troops must be given a clearly defined mission.
"We would not surge without a purpose," Schoomaker said recently. "And that purpose should be measurable."
Conway suggested that adding troops now would mean the military would be less ready to deploy in the future.
"You better make sure your timing is right," he said. "Because if you commit the reserve for something other than a decisive win or to stave off defeat, then you have essentially shot your bolt."
julian.barnes@latimes.com
Times staff writers Peter Spiegel and James Gerstenzang contributed to this report.
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