The weakness in backing strongmen

HAMAS' VICTORY in the Palestinian elections last week is widely seen as discrediting President Bush's desire to spread democracy. Actually, the electoral triumph of this pro-terrorist, anti-Western movement offers more evidence for the failure of the cynical approach that the United States pursued before Bush came into office -- a pseudo-realistic policy of using supposedly benign dictators to repress Islamic extremists.

That, after all, was the rationale behind the Oslo process: Israel and the U.S. would support Yasser Arafat in the hope that he would deliver peace and crack down on the crazies. Fat chance. Instead, his Fatah party gave birth to the suicide bombers of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, and he tolerated terrorists affiliated with competing groups, as a cudgel to pressure Israel into greater concessions. Palestinian television and radio stations, newspapers and schools never ceased to glorify suicide bombers (\o7shahids\f7, or martyrs) and to revile Jews and Americans. When Israel wasn't willing to deliver as much land as Arafat wanted, he unleashed the second intifada, an all-out terrorist offensive that took years to defeat.

In that time, conditions only got worse in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, leading to a precipitous fall in Palestinian living standards and considerable property damage and loss of life, without defeating the "Zionist entity." This failure increased disenchantment with the Palestinian Authority, which has all the disadvantages of a typical oligarchy (including extreme corruption) and none of the advantages (it provides no law and order). Disenchantment turned to disgust when Gaza descended into anarchy following the Israeli pullout. It was thus no great surprise that voters turned to Hamas, which has shown itself to be less venal and more adept at delivering social services than the incumbent Fatah party.

Polls indicate that most Palestinian voters aren't in favor of waging all-out war against Israel, which would result in ruinous retaliation. But there is no denying that this has been Hamas' agenda, notwithstanding occasional truces. It now has a choice -- either suspend its war on Israel and concentrate on delivering mundane civil services, or risk a backlash among voters.