CALIFORNIA VOTERS are shedding their identification with the two major political parties so rapidly that if current trends continue, independent voters could outnumber Democrats and Republicans in the Golden State by 2025.
These new independents, who eschew ideological loyalty and rigid partisan labels, represent a significant challenge to the mainstream parties. Already, California's last few governors have needed to court independent voters to get elected, and in doing so, they fostered ideological tension within their parties; in the future, this struggle maybe become far more acute.
In the highly partisan Legislature, the influence of independents has until now been limited by a redistricting map that protects incumbents and concentrates partisan voters. But in recent years, there's been more and more pressure on legislative leaders to take the politics out of redistricting and to use public money to finance campaigns, both of which would further weaken the existing party system.
It's hard to say where the trend will end. One theory is that it could culminate in the emergence of a new political party; this is suggested by the fact that nearly two-thirds of independent voters said in a recent poll that the two-party system is inadequate and that a third party is needed.
Or, conversely, it might mark an entirely new political paradigm that reflects the increasingly rootless nature of modern society -- a no-party state. In such an environment, transient coalitions would form around candidates or issues instead of around party organizations. Campaigns would use technologies and databases to target and communicate with voters based on their preferences, not their party identification. And candidates would have to stop focusing so much on their old voting base and expand their platforms to include issues attractive to disconnected voters.
The independent trend has been underway for more than a decade. During the 1980s, both major parties grew significantly, together adding about 2.5 million voters. Independents declined as a share of the electorate.
But 1990 was a turning point. That year, Democratic registration in California dropped below 50% for the first time in more than half a century. Since then, the electorate has added 2.3 million voters, and nearly 90% of that growth was in registration outside the two major parties.
