And that's not the only Google theory out there. Content producers wonder whether Google's push into video search will unravel the economics that make Hollywood hum. If viewers can find and legally download an episode of "Seinfeld" through Google, will that cut into cable and network television's profits?
And what if Google, after equipping cities, starting with San Francisco, with Wi-Fi wireless technology, starts to offer pay-TV service for free?
Still, to date, the company's $123-billion stock market value is based almost entirely on its dominance of one business: global text searches on the Web. Some investors worry that Page and co-founder Sergey Brin could be done in by their penchant for seeing themselves as do-gooders rather than profiteers. But those naysayers are in the minority. Most industry executives and Wall Street analysts believe that Google's search engine business is robust enough to give the young billionaires two or three years of wiggle room to build nifty services first and worry about making money on them later.
Microsoft comes out swinging
When Microsoft lost its yearlong battle to replace Google as the provider of advertisements on Time Warner Inc.'s AOL Search last month, one analyst described the defeat as "the death knell" for MSN, Microsoft's Internet service.
Within days, speculation was rampant that Microsoft, determined to keep itself in the game, had offered to buy Yahoo Inc. for $80 billion. If rumors were to be believed, the Microsoft bid -- a premium of more than 30% over the Web giant's current market value -- was rejected by Yahoo as too low.
Will Microsoft spend $90 billion or more to buy Yahoo or, alternatively, AOL parent Time Warner? Maybe not, especially when the software giant could buy Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp at a fraction of the price. If owned by Microsoft, Diller's collection of websites such as Ask Jeeves, Expedia, HSN.com, LendingTree and Ticketmaster could help drive traffic to MSN.
Icahn retreats
Wall Street sources said that upon learning of the Google-AOL alliance, bankers at Lazard Ltd. who represented financier Carl Icahn asked Gates to join their team.
The hope was that Microsoft would aid Icahn in his proxy battle to unseat the Time Warner board, split up the company and win control of AOL.
Most media experts, however, are betting that the opposite will occur: Icahn, lacking support from the entertainment giant's institutional investors, will fold his cards in defeat even before Time Warner's annual meeting this spring.
