WASHINGTON — The downfall of prominent Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff dropped like a bomb into the early stages of the 2006 congressional campaign. But the scandal's political impact will depend on how far the radius of the blast extends.
Abramoff's guilty pleas to several felonies Tuesday and Wednesday will probably compound the electoral headaches for those senators and House members most directly linked to him. Republicans with close ties to the lobbyist -- including Reps. Bob Ney of Ohio and Tom DeLay of Texas and Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana -- have come under fire from Democratic opponents.
But many analysts in both parties think that the Abramoff investigation will significantly change the 2006 political landscape only if it helps Democrats portray the GOP congressional majority as enmeshed in a "culture of corruption."
Such a portrait could magnify the controversy's effect by threatening even legislators tangentially involved with Abramoff -- much the way the Republican focus on congressional scandals in the early 1990s weakened a broad swath of Democratic incumbents.
But framing that picture won't be easy for Democrats, partly because members of the party also received contributions from Abramoff clients and partly because polls show most Americans see both parties as equally prone to corruption.
"It could change, but at this point Democrat dreams of corruption being a central theme are not there in public opinion," said GOP pollster Glen Bolger.
The GOP does face the risk that if the Abramoff case results in indictments of Republican lawmakers, voters could see the scandal in more partisan terms.
"You are likely to have a very public, very lengthy discussion of exactly how corruption has worked among Republican lobbyists and Republican members of Congress," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster. "I think that portrait will have an impact much broader than on just the people who got a buck or two, or 25,000, from Abramoff."
Democratic congressional leaders have signaled for months that a central theme of the party's 2006 campaign will be that Republicans have focused more on the concerns of lobbyists and special interests than of ordinary families.
In Montana, Burns faced this line of attack Wednesday from the two Democrats contending for the nomination to oppose him in November.
