One reason Iran is brushing off international condemnation of its nuclear program so defiantly is that its leaders apparently believe they have the world over a barrel.
Facing broad criticism of its decision to resume nuclear research, Iran has responded with transparent threats to cut off oil supplies if the world imposes economic sanctions or other penalties. Last weekend, Iran's economic minister said any effort to pressure the country over its nuclear program could "raise oil prices beyond levels the West expects."
This bluster ought to inspire two responses from the U.S. and its allies. In the near term, the answer is to call Iran's bluff. In the long term, the answer is to reduce its leverage.
The immediate priority is sending Iran a clear message that the world won't tolerate its resumption, earlier this month, of uranium enrichment research that would advance its capability to build nuclear weapons.
With China and Russia resistant, it will take skillful diplomacy to steer the United Nations toward meaningful diplomatic or economic penalties for Iran. But largely because President Bush has coordinated with European allies on Iran better than he did on Iraq, he begins this diplomatic steeplechase in a much stronger position at home.
It's not surprising that two conservative foreign policy groups, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the revived Committee on the Present Danger, have scheduled a news conference Monday to urge Bush to seek international sanctions against Iran.
But in the past week, three Democratic senators -- Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Bill Nelson of Florida and Evan Bayh of Indiana -- also have urged Bush to pursue sanctions. Bayh wants the Senate to go on record supporting international sanctions that include blocking travel by Iranian officials and punishing nations that invest in Iran's energy industry.
The U.N. route could still prove a dead end for Bush if China or Russia vetoes action against Iran. But the early indications of bipartisan concern suggest that if the U.N. fails to act, Bush would have domestic support for assembling a "coalition of the willing" committed to economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran.
Sanctions may not dissuade Iran unless reinforced by more carrots (promises of future energy and economic cooperation) and sticks (the "last resort" possibility of military action against nuclear facilities). But if the world blinks from imposing sanctions for defiance now, Iran's leaders might conclude that their oil threat will deter real penalties at each future step in the confrontation.
