Virtually since the Internet's creation, its most devoted protectors have been wondering how long it would take for the forces of unrestrained commerce to throttle its freedom and innovation.
Now they have a date: Some people believe the breakpoint will come as early as Jan. 6, 2008.
That's when the telecommunications marriage of Verizon Communications and MCI marks its second anniversary and sheds an important restriction imposed by the Federal Communications Commission when it approved the deal in November: a requirement that Verizon comply with the principle known as "network neutrality" for two years following the completion of its acquisition. (The FCC imposed the same provision on SBC Communications and AT&T. But their deal closed in December, so the restriction expires a couple of weeks sooner.)
Absent network neutrality, network operators could dictate to customers which Internet services they could access, and at what quality. Customers of Apple's iTunes music store, say, might find their downloads slowed down, or blocked completely, if Apple refuses to pay a transaction fee to their ISP. Users of the Vonage Internet phone service might lose their dial tones if their Internet provider wants to sell its own brand of phone service. The Internet might become more profitable for network providers, and less useful for everybody else.
Under the traditional network model, it's none of your ISP's business whether you're using your connection to view video streams, buy music or make phone calls. There are only a handful of exceptions, such as actions aimed at containing spam, blocking illegal activity or maintaining the network's integrity.
Many in the Web community argue that keeping the network open has been the key to the development of new services.
"When you introduce discrimination of any kind, it's anti-innovative," says David Isenberg, a networking pioneer who is currently a fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University. If service providers are charged for preferential transmission, new services that can't afford the fee might be kept out of the marketplace.
The old model, however, is threatened by some recent developments.
