Placing Blame for Mexico's Ills

Around Latin America, countries are loosening their embrace of free-market policies and institutions as left-of-center leaders have come to power. Argentina, which has sparred repeatedly with the Washington-based International Monetary Fund after its 2001 financial crisis, has emerged from the largest sovereign debt default in history with economic growth rates topping 9%. Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia have moved to exert greater state control over energy resources to devote more funding to social spending. Privatization of public utilities such as water has fallen out of favor. And a U.S.-led push for a hemispherewide trade agreement has gone nowhere.

Given that climate, some political analysts say the time might be right for Mexico to push back against its largest trading partner and demand protections for key domestic industries such as farming that still generate a lot of employment in Mexico.

Mexico's agriculture minister last month pleaded with the U.S. and Canada to allow the country to keep import restrictions on corn and beans, which are scheduled under NAFTA to come off in 2008. Mexican farm groups have warned that the end of protections would send millions more rural dwellers toward the border. The U.S. quickly rejected the proposal.

But Lopez Obrador, who holds a slight lead in opinion polls, has declared that he wouldn't honor Mexico's NAFTA commitment to eliminate barriers on corn and beans if he were elected. In fact, his chief economic advisor, Rogelio Ramirez de la O, told Reuters last month that a Lopez Obrador administration would seek a full review of the agreement, particularly the agricultural component.

"We think that this is high time for a due diligence on NAFTA ... ," Ramirez de la O said. "We have to recognize where things have not worked out."

That kind of talk has U.S. trade officials and farmers chafing. But given Americans' rising fury over illegal immigration, Pamela Starr, Latin America analyst for Washington-based Eurasia Group, said it was time for the United States "to get real" with its trade and immigration policies toward Mexico. She said it was disingenuous and unfair for the U.S. to protect its own farmers with fat subsidies while demanding that small Mexican growers compete with them head-to-head.

"An essential part of any migration program designed to reduce the flow [of illegal immigrants] needs to have U.S. efforts to help Mexico develop its own economy," Starr said. "The U.S. has two options. It can import Mexican goods or it can import Mexican workers."

Special correspondent Sarah Meghan Lee contributed to this report.