WASHINGTON — The Republican victory in a closely watched San Diego-area House race showed that even in a hostile political environment, the GOP can defend its strongholds against a stiff Democratic challenge.
The result, however, shed little light on what seems the key question in November's election: Can Republicans keep their House majority by also holding on to enough seats in districts more evenly balanced between the two parties?
Throughout Washington, GOP officials Wednesday shared a widespread sense of relief after Republican Brian Bilbray defeated Democrat Francine Busby in Tuesday's vote to succeed former GOP Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, who resigned after pleading guilty to corruption charges last year.
Most analysts cautioned against reading too much into a race that amounted to Republicans holding serve by retaining control of a district that has voted reliably Republican.
But the outcome may have demonstrated the limits of Democrats' ability to parlay President Bush's unpopularity and the public's disdain for a scandal-racked Congress into concrete gains in districts that have leaned toward the GOP.
"The fact is, there are no moral victories in American politics; either you win, or you don't," said Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds (R-N.Y.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Bilbray's victory denied Democrats what they had been seeking most from the race -- evidence that the bleak poll numbers for Bush and Congress will translate into the same sort of voter backlash that gave the GOP control of Capitol Hill in 1994.
By the same token, independent political analyst Stuart Rothenberg cautioned that Republicans still have their work cut out for them in this year's campaign.
"They would be deluding themselves if they took this as evidence there was no ... mood for change," Rothenberg said.
Indeed, Democratic voters in Montana showed a willingness to shake the status quo in choosing their candidate to run against GOP Sen. Conrad Burns, who is in political trouble because of his links to disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Democratic voters soundly rejected an establishment candidate embroiled in a scandal of his own in favor of a nominee who appears better equipped to make ethics an issue against Burns.
The California result was sufficiently mixed to justify optimism and concern in each party.
