And Now for GOP's Real Test

As Reynolds' comment made clear, Republicans were cheered by the bottom line -- they held the seat. Busby fell short even though Cunningham's legal troubles and Bilbray's experience as a lobbyist -- a profession besmirched by the Abramoff scandal -- made California's 50th District about as ideal an environment as Democrats could have wished for to promote their political reform message.

"If they couldn't win on that message in [this race] ... they are not going to win on it anywhere," said Carl Forti, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Some analysts blamed Busby's loss on a gaffe during the campaign's final days, when at a rally she seemed to be encouraging illegal immigrants to vote. Before her comments, GOP officials in Washington were increasingly concerned about the outcome. But after Busby's comments Thursday night, momentum in the race switched.

Democrats took heart from the money and manpower Republicans had to pour into winning in a district where elections have been a GOP cakewalk.

Bush, First Lady Laura Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) all taped telephone messages urging voters to back Bilbray. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent at least $4.5 million.

"They don't have the money to spend $4 [million] or $5 million to defend every seat" that could be competitive this fall, said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

Democrats also were heartened that Bilbray was held to about 49% of the vote in a district Bush won with 55% in 2004.

If Republicans in more closely balanced districts run that far behind Bush's '04 tallies in this November's vote, Democrats could gain the 15 seats they need to recapture the House.

"The Bush drag puts an awful lot of seats in play that wouldn't be," said Ellen R. Malcolm, the president of EMILY's List, a group that works to elect liberal Democratic women to Congress.

EMILY's List named 31 Republican-held House seats that could tilt to the Democrats if the GOP candidate this year runs about five percentage points behind Bush's '04 totals.

Yet that analysis seemed to crop out part of the picture. Bilbray ran behind Bush mostly because two conservative independent candidates siphoned off about 5% of the vote. For all the attention Busby attracted, she won only 45% of the vote, comparable to the 44% that Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry won in the district in 2004.