WASHINGTON — A key factor behind the nuclear cooperation agreement reached this week between the United States and India was a simple trade-off: The White House was willing to risk losing ground in the worldwide campaign to limit the spread of nuclear weapons for a deal with India that could help it counter the rising power of China.
Despite widespread criticism that the pact sets back global nuclear nonproliferation efforts, Bush administration officials praise the deal for its promise of better ties with a thriving democracy and reduced competition for world oil.
But administration officials also know well that an India that is more prosperous, and well armed, represents a hedge against Chinese military ambitions. With China's intentions unclear, such a counter is an important component of U.S. strategy.
Counterbalancing China "is an under-the-surface issue that only rarely pokes its head up," said Jon Wolfsthal, a former Energy Department official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. "But it's very much there."
The Bush administration has made nonproliferation one of its top priorities, and is trying to limit the nuclear ambitions of Iran. But the pact with India could hurt that goal. Many experts think the U.S.-India agreement is likely to convince nonnuclear nations that they can proceed with bomb-building programs in the face of international disapproval, and eventually win back American support.
In the past, the administration has stressed the importance of the U.S.-Japanese strategic relationship to ensure it has a close and capable ally on China's southeastern flank. The deal with India reflects a desire to build an alliance on China's southwestern boundary. The agreement, which requires congressional approval, would lift a moratorium on civilian nuclear cooperation and allow for India's continued work on nuclear arms.
U.S. officials didn't mention China as they presented details of the accord. But several senior administration officials have said the United States must strengthen India to offset China.
Ashley J. Tellis, a senior State Department official and a key architect of the new strategic policy on India, has argued that a buildup of India's nuclear arsenal is not only in New Delhi's interest, but Washington's. It will cause Beijing to worry more about India and less about the United States, Tellis says.
