DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iraq skims the brink of civil war and then whirls away, leaving behind a lingering unpredictability that threatens turmoil across a jittery Middle East that has begun modest steps toward democracy after decades of instability.
Although regional fears of being infected by sectarianism and Islamic militancy have loomed since U.S.-led forces deposed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein three years ago, they have become more urgent in recent weeks as rage between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in Iraq has led to hundreds of deaths.
For the broader Middle East, this violent spasm underscores how the region's fate is bound to Iraq. A civil war could carve the country along Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish lines and quickly echo through other nations. Shiite-ruled Iran would probably exert more of its growing influence in the region by aiding Iraq's majority Shiite population. Saudi Arabia and Jordan might intervene to help the minority Sunnis. And Turkey, long resistant to a free Kurdish state along its border, could send its army into heavily Kurdish northern Iraq.
"Iraq's a bomb that can eventually explode beyond control," said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "Civil war may not be imminent, but what kind of government will you have there? The danger is over the long term, and it's creating a lot of apprehension. What will the Shiites do? Where will the foreign fighters go? You have to look from all dimensions."
These problems threaten to further agitate historical animosities between the two main branches of Islam. Saudi Arabia and other mainly Sunni countries bordering Iraq have Shiite populations that might be roused if Iraq splintered in sectarian war. Many Sunni Arab capitals are increasingly suspicious of Iran's hand in Iraq, and tensions have risen around the nuclear aspirations of Tehran, which the U.S. contends is intent on producing weapons.
A recent report by the International Crisis Group found that Shiite influence in the region "is fast becoming the paramount concern. This perception triggered Jordan's King Abdullah's warning
The report states that Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, want a unified Iraq because their own fragilities may not survive unrest at home. However, the assessment adds: "Should neighboring states conclude either that Shiite influence has become a strategic threat or that Iraq's breakup is inevitable, they are likely to take steps that will accelerate the country's disintegration."
