GOP Can Win by Limiting Losses

Discontent with the nation's direction and the federal government's performance is virtually screaming from public opinion surveys, which show approval ratings for President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress falling to their lowest levels.

On many measures, Bush and the GOP are facing at least as much dissatisfaction as Democrats and President Clinton did just before the 1994 midterm landslide that swept Republicans into control of the House and Senate.

But today's wave of dissatisfaction is crashing into a political structure that is much more stable than in 1994. It now is tougher to beat House incumbents or to win Senate seats in states that usually back the other party in presidential elections.

This year "is going to be a real test to see what happens when you get a fairly strong political tide coming up against this very rigidified system," said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Atlanta's Emory University.

Or, as Democratic pollster Mark Mellman put it: "The question is: Which is going to be more important, the stability of the structure or the size of the wave?"

To gain a majority in the House, Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats. To capture the Senate, they need a net gain of six seats.

It won't be easy for them to reach either number, experts in both parties agree. But increasingly, analysts say it is no longer inconceivable that Democrats could capture one -- or both -- of the chambers.

"I don't think the question is, 'Will the Republicans lose [seats in] the midterm election?' " said G. Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. "The question is, 'How badly will they lose?' "

As a result, some Republican incumbents who thought themselves secure are girding for the worst by stockpiling campaign cash and, where necessary, spending it early. To coordinate political strategy, House GOP leaders have begun holding weekly meetings for staff members of about a dozen of the most vulnerable Republicans.