WASHINGTON — A Pentagon report on Chinese military modernization issued Tuesday reveals growing American concern over China's ability not only to threaten Taiwan, but also to throw its power around throughout East Asia and confront other U.S. allies.
This year's edition of the annual report highlights apprehension among U.S. military officials that China is gearing up to confront Japan, and demands an explanation for Beijing's naval, air and missile buildup.
"They are very worried the Chinese are posturing for a maritime confrontation with Japan," said James Mulvenon, deputy director of the Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, an independent research firm in Washington.
Although many analysts share the Bush administration's concern that the growth of the Chinese military could upset the balance of power in East Asia, they were more skeptical about the report's estimate of China's overall military spending.
The Pentagon cited a Defense Intelligence Agency estimate that put China's 2006 military spending between $70 billion and $105 billion. Independent analysts say that China clearly spends more than its official figure of $35 billion, but some, such as Mulvenon, said the actual figure was more likely to be no more than $50 billion.
Analysts also expressed doubt that China's efforts posed an immediate threat to the U.S. Navy in the Pacific.
"The Pentagon believes the Chinese modernization is designed to create a dominant position in East Asia and displace the United States," said Ted Galen Carpenter, the vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. "That might be a long-term goal, but you would have to measure that in decades, not years."
Soon after it took office in 2001, the Bush administration began to question China's military upgrades. But after the Sept. 11 attacks, the threat from China fell by the wayside as a leading U.S. worry. This year's report reflects the administration's renewed concern, said Carpenter, the author of the book "America's Coming War With China."
"It's a resumption of what we saw in the first months of the administration," he said. "We are seeing a return to that focus. China is the most likely strategic competitor for this country."
