WASHINGTON — A Democratic capture of the House or Senate on Tuesday would generate powerful pressure on President Bush -- from Republicans as well as Democrats -- for a fundamental change of direction in the increasingly unpopular Iraq war.
With polls casting the midterm election as a referendum on Iraq, a Democratic victory in either chamber would give party lawmakers a national platform with which to prod the president, through public hearings and investigations into how the war has been conducted.
For Republicans, a significant Democratic advance would be proof that voters are fed up with the current course of the war and expect changes from the nation's leaders.
While Bush still will hold the lead role in foreign policy, a Democratic win would be a sign of an overpowering public sentiment "that Republicans here won't overlook," a senior GOP congressional staffer said. "The White House will have to adjust to that reality too," said the aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing party strategy.
"It will be a new day," said Marshall Wittmann, a former aide to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) who is now with the moderate Democratic Leadership Council. "The real factor [Bush] has to fear is a collapse of support among Republicans, as well as Democrats."
Vice President Dick Cheney, in an interview with ABC's "This Week" to be broadcast Sunday, acknowledged that Tuesday's vote "will have some effect, perhaps, in the Congress." But Cheney pointed out that Bush is not up for reelection this year and is proceeding "full steam ahead" toward his goal of securing a victory in Iraq.
However, Wittmann said that while Republican pressure on the president so far has been muted by party loyalty, a Democratic victory would be "a psychological blow" that would bring expressions of unhappiness from Republicans who don't want to be saddled with the war going into the 2008 election.
Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), ranking minority member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told reporters recently that a Democratic victory in either chamber "would have a huge motivating force on the president to change course." Levin added that "more and more Republicans would join with Democrats in trying to get the administration" to change direction.
At the same time, lawmakers and experts don't expect Democratic victories to force a quick withdrawal of troops from Iraq -- even though polling suggests that is what many Americans expect.
