Bush is focusing his final travel schedule on such places, with a message aimed at mobilizing Republicans through fierce attacks on Democrats on issues such as taxes, domestic security and Iraq.
Virginia Rep. Davis, the former GOP congressional campaign committee chairman, said the best news for his party in the final days before the election was that Bush's razor-edged message, combined with the controversy surrounding Kerry's recent remarks about the Iraq war, appeared to be energizing Republican base voters to turn out.
But in areas of the country with larger proportions of swing and independent voters, such as Connecticut, Ohio, and the suburbs of Philadelphia and Denver, Republican candidates face large deficits with those voters that will be difficult to overcome.
And in such places, Davis believes, Bush's rhetoric offers little help and may even prove counterproductive, by further antagonizing swing voters unhappy over Iraq and over Washington's intense partisanship.
Bush's closing argument "stops a total collapse," Davis said. "But it's not a strategy for keeping the House."
If Bush generates a surge of GOP turnout that enables Republicans to do better than expected Tuesday, his base-oriented approach could solidify its dominance in the party.
Big Democratic gains, on the other hand, would likely be prelude to the most open questioning of Bush's governing and political strategy that the president has faced since taking office.
"You want to be able to mobilize your base without alienating independents," said one senior House Republican, who asked for anonymity when expressing doubts about White House strategy. "We've been able to do the first; I'm not convinced we have been able to do the second. And that could be a very dangerous thing come Tuesday night."
ronald.brownstein@ latimes.com
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Election preview
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In the Senate
Incumbents are heavily favored in most of Tuesday's 33 Senate contests, but the results in 10 competitive races should decide which party controls the chamber. Eight Republican-held seats are considered endangered; Democrats have two at risk. Democrats need a net gain of six seats to gain a majority.
GOP-held seats at risk
Pennsylvania
Rick Santorum (R)
Incumbent
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Santorum is a renowned conservative activist, and that will probably be his undoing in a state where most voters are more moderate. Casey, who opposes abortion rights, appears poised to win.
