Menendez, one of the Senate's three Latinos, has faced a tough fight as he seeks a full term to the seat he was appointed to last year. The state's Democratic tilt and voter disapproval of President Bush may power him to victory. If Kean pulls an upset, Democratic hopes for a majority almost assuredly will be dashed.
Maryland
Benjamin L. Cardin (D)
Michael Steele (R)
In a heavily Democratic state, the party presumed it would easily retain the seat held by Paul Sarbanes, who is retiring. But Cardin has proved a lackluster candidate. He still is likely to win, overcoming a spirited challenge from Steele, an African American who effectively de-emphasized his GOP affiliation as part of his effort to woo black voters.
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Virtually all analysts expect Democrats to pick up seats. But whether they gain at least 15 -the minimum they need for a majority-hinges in part on how they fare in a handful of states where several Republican-held districts could change hands
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States with multiple Republicans at risk
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New York
Indiana
Florida
Other key Democratic targets
Arizona,
8th District
Gabrielle Giffords (D)
Randy Graf (R)
Giffords is heavily favored to win this open seat. The GOP-nominated staunch conservative Randy Graf seems out of step with a district that includes much of Tucson.
New Mexico,
1st District
Heather A. Wilson (R)
Incumbent
Patricia Madrid (D)
In one of the nation's relatively few districts not drawn to strongly favor one party, Wilson is fighting for her political life. The outcome could be a bellwether of Democrats' success nationwide.
North Carolina, 11th District
Charles H. Taylor (R)
Incumbent
Heath Shuler (D)
In another potential bellwether, Shuler, a former NFL quarterback, is emphasizing a conservative platform. A Shuler win would be a good sign for Democratic prospects elsewhere.
Texas,
22nd District
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R)
Nick Lampson (D)
This seat opened when ethics controversies led onetime House powerbroker Tom DeLay to resign, leaving the GOP without a candidate on the ballot. Lampson is favored to beat Sekula-Gibbs, who is running a write-in campaign.
California,
4th and
22nd Districts
John T. Doolittle (R) and Richard W. Pombo (R)
Incumbents
