MANAGUA, NICARAGUA — Daniel Ortega, the rebel leader driven from power 16 years ago by a U.S.-backed war and the missteps of his own Sandinista movement, was cruising Monday toward victory and an unlikely political resurrection in Nicaragua's presidential vote.
The result was a blow to the Bush administration, which worked actively to discourage Nicaraguans from voting for Ortega, a 60-year-old former Marxist now allied with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the bete noire of Latin American and U.S. conservatives.
With 62% of the ballots counted, Ortega was outpolling conservative challenger Eduardo Montealegre, 39% to 31%. Two separate "quick counts" that took samples of the vote found Ortega would win a clear and "irrefutable" first-round triumph.
Ortega's apparent victory was celebrated Monday evening in the impoverished neighborhoods of this and other Nicaraguan cities, where the Sandinista National Liberation Front's core supporters have remained loyal through years of revolution, counterrevolution and electoral defeats.
Cars cruised down Managua's main streets with horns honking and passengers waving the black and red flag of the Sandinista Front.
"I feel like I did in 1979, because this is a new revolution," said Violeta Mena, 44, remembering the day when the Sandinistas marched into Managua after defeating the army of dictator Anastasio Somoza. "This is not an armed revolution, it's a revolution for social justice."
Though his followers still call him el comandante, Ortega won by reinventing himself as a moderate and a dealmaker in the long tradition of Latin American populist politics.
Over the last two years, Ortega has forged a series of cunning alliances that have left his opponents on both ends of the political spectrum weak and divided.
Ortega reconciled with former enemies, including the hierarchy of the local Roman Catholic Church and former commanders of the right-wing Contra army who fought to overthrow him in the 1980s. And Sandinista legislators used their influence to change the rules of the electoral contest to make a first-round victory easier.
"He's a smart man and a shrewd politician, obviously," former President Carter said. Carter, who as president met Ortega when the Sandinistas came to power in the 1979 revolution, was leading a 62-observer delegation here.
