Still no slam dunk on an immigration bill

On the campaign trail, many GOP candidates stressed the House's "get-tough" position on immigration policy. The consequences of this strategy are subject to debate. Defenders say that to do otherwise would have risked the wrath of core Republican voters. But others note that based on exit polls, the nationwide level of Latino support for the GOP was about 30% -- compared with the more than 40% share Bush won in 2004.

Many Democrats say the midterm election results showed that voters won't punish candidates who back a broad immigration overhaul. Even so, how aggressively the party will push for an immigration bill in the next Congress remains in doubt.

House Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) did not include the issue on her list of immediate goals. She did, however, broach the subject with Bush in their first post-election meeting.

Democrats say crafting an immigration bill that could pass will require careful planning and prolonged negotiations. It is in Pelosi's best interests, they say, to develop the operation of her caucus by focusing on other initiatives that enjoy wide support before presenting it with a difficult vote on a thorny subject.

Immigration is "a hot-button issue, it's a racism issue, it's a terrorism issue; of course it's scary for Democrats to get in the way of that," said Joseph Garcia, director of the Hispanic Strategy Center at NDN, a party advocacy group. He added that a broad immigration package "is hard to explain in 30 seconds, particularly if the other side is using the word 'amnesty.' "

One House Democratic strategist estimates that about half of the almost 30 seats that Democrats took from Republicans went to candidates who took conservative positions on immigration reform.

These newcomers include Rep.-elect Heath Shuler of North Carolina, who "is against amnesty," spokesman Andrew Whalen said. "If there's friction with the party [on the issue], there's nothing we can do about it; his views really do reflect his district."

Persuading Schuler and similar Democrats to back the type of immigration bill the Senate passed this year will be difficult, particularly in cases where the lawmakers won by small margins and can expect tough 2008 re-election bids. Still, many Democrats think it can be done.

"I remember when I was a freshman, you go through a campaign and you honestly say what you think, but ... there are always things you need to learn," said Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose).