WASHINGTON — The top American commander in the Middle East said Tuesday that continuing violence in Iraq coupled with delays in forming an effective government and viable security forces would prevent any reduction in U.S. troops before spring.
Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, head of the U.S. Central Command, said that six months ago he would have predicted that two U.S. brigades, or about 7,000 troops, could have been withdrawn by now. Deteriorating conditions have scuttled those plans.
"We clearly did not achieve the force levels we had hoped to," Abizaid said. "Why is that? Part of it is that the sectarian violence got worse, and part of it is the development of the security forces."
Army Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top U.S. commander in Iraq, had told the White House that he hoped to withdraw substantial numbers of troops by this fall. But after carrying out small reductions, the Pentagon increased the number of soldiers and Marines in Iraq to 147,000 -- a jump of about 20,000 since June.
As conditions have worsened for Iraqis, the war has grown increasingly unpopular with Americans, and promises to be the major issue in November's congressional elections.
A lack of progress by Iraq's government is a growing concern for the Bush administration. In a separate briefing Tuesday, the chairmen of a commission evaluating U.S. policy in Iraq said the Baghdad government risked losing the support of its citizens and the American public unless it delivered security and public services within the next three months.
"No one can expect miracles, but the people of Iraq have the right to expect immediate action," said former U.S. Rep. Lee H. Hamilton, an Indiana Democrat who is co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group with former Secretary of State James A. Baker III. "The government of Iraq needs to show its own citizens soon, and the citizens of the United States, that it is deserving of continued support."
Abizaid, who was in Washington for meetings with Pentagon officials, defended the recent decision to move troops from other parts of Iraq to Baghdad, saying that stabilizing the capital was "the most important military priority."
On the number of troops in Iraq, Abizaid said, "I think that this level will probably have to be sustained through the spring, then we will reevaluate."
The overall strategy had been to push Iraqi units to the forefront, while moving American units into "overwatch" positions to help as necessary. But as the situation in Baghdad deteriorated, it was clear the U.S. needed to step in, he said.
