DENVER — The colors are changing this autumn in Colorado -- from solid Republican red to something approaching a strong tint of Democratic blue.
A GOP stronghold from the mid-1990s through President Bush's first term, Colorado has emerged as one of the Democrats' principal prospects for gains in the 2006 election. Polls show Democrats holding an edge in most of the state's key contests, including an open House seat and the battle between Democrat Bill Ritter and Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez for the governorship.
"Anything is possible, but if we were having this election today, the Democrats would be in control of Colorado, from the governorship to a majority of the congressional seats to both houses of the state Legislature," said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based independent pollster.
If Democrats can maintain their advantages here, the results could not only tilt the local balance of power but reshape the national battlefield for the 2008 presidential campaign.
Most Democratic strategists consider Colorado and three other Western states -- Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada -- critical targets as the party tries to expand its electoral map beyond the East and West coasts and the upper Midwest.
"Everybody in the Democratic Party realizes these days the new opportunity -- the place we can, and are, growing the vote -- is out West," said Mike Stratton, a veteran Democratic consultant in Denver.
Necessity, as much as opportunity, is driving the increasing Democratic focus. In 2004, Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John F. Kerry directed money and attention toward the four states, largely because he concluded he had virtually no chance of cracking Bush's hold on any Southern state.
That shift paid few immediate dividends. Bush swept the four states, running better in Arizona and in New Mexico (which he narrowly lost in 2000) than he had four years earlier.
But, compared with the 2000 results, Kerry cut Bush's victory margin roughly in half in Nevada and Colorado. And in Colorado, moderate Democrat Ken Salazar won a U.S. Senate seat that had been held by a Republican, and Democrats swept to control of the state's two legislative chambers.
This year's election will test whether Democrats can expand their beachheads across the region and realistically target these states in 2008.
