Another Reagan?

Like Ronald Reagan, Fred D. Thompson is an actor-politician. But the former “Law & Order” TV star is hoping that Republicans will see similarities beyond membership in the Screen Actors Guild. Like Reagan, Thompson is casting himself as a conservative, a supporter of states’ rights and, much less plausibly for a former senator and lobbyist, an “outsider” to the ways of Washington. (Hey, two out of three ain’t bad.)

With due deference to Thompson’s countrified charisma and his claim to the Reagan mantle, the buzz surrounding the Tennessean’s slow-motion entrance into the 2008 presidential race – made official this week on “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno” – is as much a commentary on his opponents’ weakness as it is on his strengths. Adjusting for the hyperacceleration of the race, Thompson is a latecomer. For months, Republicans have been courted by former presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain, “America’s Mayor” Rudolph W. Giuliani and well-heeled “outsider” Mitt Romney, along with assorted dark horses.

That the Republican faithful are intrigued by Thompson is a reminder of one of the oddities of this campaign: The Not So Big Three pose problems for the social conservatives who venerate Reagan and exercise disproportionate influence in Republican primaries. Giuliani, after some awkward equivocation, has reiterated that he is pro-choice on abortion. Romney is antiabortion, but recently so, and an adherent of a faith that some evangelicals consider a cult. McCain has apostatized in the eyes of some conservatives by supporting campaign-finance reform and “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants.

By comparison, Thompson may seem like Reagan redux. But the Reagan he resembles is the one who challenged Richard M. Nixon for the GOP nomination in 1968, not the more road-tested Reagan who almost dislodged Gerald R. Ford in 1976 or the Great Communicator who humiliated Jimmy Carter in 1980. If he is nevertheless able to overtake longer-running candidates, the Reagan analogy may need to be reconsidered – at least until the general election. Unlike the Gipper in 1980, Thompson as the 2008 Republican nominee would not be running against an unpopular incumbent; he’d be trying to run away from one.