Can France's next leader lead?
THE TOP TWO candidates for the French presidency are in a dead heat as the campaign enters its final week. The electorate is at once divided and undecided, unsure whether to turn left or right to address the dual challenges of immigration and globalization.
Deep political cleavages are hardly unique to France; throughout Europe (and in the United States as well), the tensions caused by migrant flows and the job losses resulting from global competition are producing polarized societies and angry electorates.
But the stakes in the French election are particularly high. Having lost public confidence, the government of President Jacques Chirac has been in effective paralysis for the last two years, leaving both the European Union and French-American relations adrift.
With French voters increasingly weary of their political establishment, it is no accident that the two leading contenders are outsiders of sorts. Nicolas Sarkozy, the brash son of a Hungarian immigrant, has slowly burrowed his way into France's closed political elite to become the candidate of the center-right. Segolene Royal, the candidate of the center-left, punched the right tickets as she built her career, but still seemed to come from nowhere to wrest the Socialist Party candidacy from its male elders. She is the first woman with a serious shot at the presidency.
Sarkozy, who was minister of the interior until recently, is the man to beat. His main assets are his resolute style and tough stance on immigrants -- particularly the Muslim ones who now account for more than 10% of the population.
Although the proposal is still fuzzy, his call for a Ministry of Immigration and National Identity speaks directly to concerns on the right that immigrants are becoming radicalized, fomenting social unrest and threatening France's cultural identity. Sarkozy has persistently sought to appeal to voters who might stray to Jean-Marie Le Pen, the ever-present spokesman of the extreme right.
Paradoxically, Sarkozy's main asset is also his main liability. Many voters are scared of him, fearful that his exertions in the name of law, order and nationhood will cross the line, compromising basic liberties and France's civic traditions. Recently he has sought to soften his image.
Playing off Sarkozy's hard edges, Royal has cast herself as kinder and gentler -- the maternal defender of France's generous welfare state, promising to spare France the inequities and hardships of the unfettered market. She too has been unable to resist the allure of populism and patriotism, on occasion breaking into "La Marseillaise" at her rallies.
