Global warming poses a "serious threat to America's national security" and the military should act now to minimize the destabilizing consequences of rising temperatures, a panel of retired generals and admirals warned Monday.
Shortages of food and water could cause weak governments to collapse, increasingly severe natural disasters could draw U.S. forces into humanitarian missions in volatile areas, and melting Arctic ice could spark territorial disputes over shipping routes and natural resources.
Even the effectiveness of sonar used by American submarines could be at risk if parts of the oceans become less salty.
The 63-page report describes climate change as a "threat multiplier" that makes dangerous situations around the world all the more menacing.
"We will pay for this one way or another," said retired Marine Gen. Anthony C. Zinni, who commanded U.S. forces in the Middle East. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today ... or we'll pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives."
Other experts who were not involved in the report said national security concerns, though real, were probably not the most significant threats posed by global warming.
"Everything's a national security issue these days," said Scott Barrett, director of the International Policy Program at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. "It's a bit of a marketing ploy."
The report, produced by the Center for Naval Analysis, a federally funded nonprofit research and analysis organization based in Alexandria, Va., was overseen by an 11-member military advisory board chaired by former Army Chief of Staff Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan.
It was funded by the Rockefeller Family Fund, the Bipartisan Policy Center and other foundations.
The report's release came on the eve of a United Nations Security Council debate on climate change beginning today.
"Global warming's impacts on natural resources and climate systems may create the fiercest battle our world has ever seen," said Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), chair of the newly formed House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. Markey will introduce legislation to fund climate change planning by the Department of Defense.
Those battles may force the demise of weak governments in the developing world, creating power vacuums for terrorist groups to exploit, the report found.
