TEHRAN — Iran's president stood at the dais, scolding his nation's enemies. "The army stands against any aggressor and will cut off its hand," Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared to the television cameras as soldiers and tanks filed by on the avenue before him.
The scene at Tehran's Army Day celebration this week was familiar. But the message was ambiguous.
Was the annual military procession a menacing exhibition of Iran's increasing power in the Middle East or simply a display of the regime's ability to defend itself against any attacker, as Ahmadinejad suggested?
Iran remains inscrutable to Western politicians and analysts who are deeply divided over Tehran's intentions in terms of its nuclear program and relationship with the West.
Mixed signals from Iranian politicians have compounded the problem. And because many Western observers can't be sure who truly wields power in Iran, they have difficulty gauging the significance of the varied rhetoric.
"When there are questions of resuming talks or relations with the U.S., there are contradictory remarks" from Iran, said Mohammed Ismael Hydari, chief editor of Khandani, a political magazine in Tehran. "But the West doesn't understand the real political weight of the people who are making the remarks."
Reading the tea leaves in Tehran might be particularly difficult for the U.S. because it has no diplomatic representation in Iran and only minimal contact with Iranian officials.
Who is speaking for Iran?
"We're sort of flying blind when it comes to decision-making in Iran," said Vali Nasr of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. "The U.S. is setting the agenda; most of the assumptions and policies are set by the U.S. But the U.S. has the least amount of contact with Iran. The one country that is in the driving seat happens to know the least."
As a consequence, it's often unclear whether it is Ahmadinejad who speaks for Iran when he thunders from the podium or whether it is Ali Larijani, the powerful but more soft-spoken secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
Nor is it clear whether the two Iranians see eye to eye on how to deal with the U.S. and its allies or represent factions vying for power.
Top officials here do appear united in their insistence that Iran has a right to pursue a nuclear program, which they say is aimed solely at generating electricity but which Washington fears will lead to the manufacture of nuclear weapons.
