ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN — This country's long-running political crisis has entered a decisive phase, with developments in coming weeks likely to determine whether President Pervez Musharraf is able to hang on to power or is pushed aside.
Exiled opponents such as former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto are vowing to return and reclaim a place on the political stage. The current parliament, whose rubber-stamp approval Musharraf wants for another term as president, is nearing the end of its tenure. An emboldened Supreme Court is weighing legal challenges to Musharraf's participation in politics while he retains his position as military chief.
And all the while, popular anger simmers. Celebrations last week of the 60th anniversary of the end of British colonial rule and the advent of statehood were muted not only by security fears but by a sense among many Pakistanis that a transition away from military rule is long overdue.
"This is supposed to be a time for national pride, but I don't see how things can continue as they are," said shopkeeper Iqbal Hussein, who allowed his three young sons out briefly into the sultry summer evening to set off a few celebratory firecrackers on Independence Day.
"The only question," he added, "is whether the change will be peaceful or violent."
The United States has key interests at stake in Pakistan, an ally in the U.S.- and NATO-led war in Afghanistan and a nuclear-armed regional power that is battling a small but virulent Islamic insurgency of its own.
The Bush administration has been discreetly prodding Musharraf, a secular general who seized power in a coup eight years ago, to accept a power-sharing arrangement with Bhutto. But his standing has eroded to such an extent that it is not clear whether such a deal would still be in Bhutto's interest.
Even some of the Pakistani leader's longtime allies have begun quietly weighing their options for a post-Musharraf era, analysts say.
"He's terribly unpopular, and anyone who stands with him now is going to be unpopular as well," said political analyst Shafqat Mehmood, a former senator. "Those around him can't speak about this aloud -- they would do so at their peril -- but in their hearts, they are wondering what happens to them later."
Pakistan's powerful military, whose economic and political influence extends far beyond the realm of national defense, continues to back its commander-in-chief. But there have been signs that Musharraf no longer enjoys the unquestioned authority of previous years.
