WASHINGTON — Despite some military progress, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is unable to govern his country effectively and the political situation is likely to become even more precarious in the next six to 12 months, the nation's intelligence agencies concluded in a new assessment released Thursday.
The document, an update of a National Intelligence Estimate delivered in January, represents the view of all 16 U.S. spy agencies. It is their first comprehensive status report on Iraq since the troop buildup began early this year, and comes less than a month before a major assessment on the U.S. military commitment is due from Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.
Though cautiously worded and full of caveats, the estimate presents a stark conclusion: Even though the troop increase has given the Iraqi government more breathing room, Maliki and other leaders are no closer to achieving the political reconciliation necessary to keep the country from disintegrating.
The report cites "measurable but uneven improvements" in security, but says the level of violence in Iraq remains high. "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," it added.
In highlighting the disconnect between military and political progress in Iraq, the report may deepen divisions in Washington over the continued U.S. troop commitment.
Supporters of President Bush can point to signs of military progress identified in the report. It says that "overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks," and cites growing opposition to Al Qaeda-affiliated militants by Sunni Arab tribal leaders.
But Democrats and war critics question whether that progress and the accompanying U.S. sacrifice is increasingly futile because of the ineffectiveness of the Maliki government.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said the report confirmed that "our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the president's escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people."
"Every day that we continue to stick to the president's flawed strategy," Reid said, "is a day that America is not as secure as it could be."
The full text of the report, titled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive," remains classified. But the nation's intelligence director, J. Michael McConnell, released a four-page summary of the document's key judgments.
