WASHINGTON — Despite some military progress, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is unable to govern his country effectively and the political situation is likely to become even more precarious in the next six to 12 months, the nation's intelligence agencies concluded in a new assessment released Thursday.
The document, an update of a National Intelligence Estimate delivered in January, represents the view of all 16 U.S. spy agencies. It is their first comprehensive status report on Iraq since the troop buildup began early this year, and comes less than a month before a major assessment on the U.S. military commitment is due from Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.
Though cautiously worded and full of caveats, the estimate presents a stark conclusion: Even though the troop increase has given the Iraqi government more breathing room, Maliki and other leaders are no closer to achieving the political reconciliation necessary to keep the country from disintegrating.
The report cites "measurable but uneven improvements" in security, but says the level of violence in Iraq remains high. "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," it added.
In highlighting the disconnect between military and political progress in Iraq, the report may deepen divisions in Washington over the continued U.S. troop commitment.
Supporters of President Bush can point to signs of military progress identified in the report. It says that "overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks," and cites growing opposition to Al Qaeda-affiliated militants by Sunni Arab tribal leaders.
But Democrats and war critics question whether that progress and the accompanying U.S. sacrifice is increasingly futile because of the ineffectiveness of the Maliki government.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said the report confirmed that "our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the president's escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people."
"Every day that we continue to stick to the president's flawed strategy," Reid said, "is a day that America is not as secure as it could be."
The full text of the report, titled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive," remains classified. But the nation's intelligence director, J. Michael McConnell, released a four-page summary of the document's key judgments.
Intelligence officials said the document was produced at the request of Congress and the National Security Council, and that its release was timed so it could be considered by military officials and others working on other progress reports due next month.
The summary concludes that "the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months." That is a crucial period because military experts believe the troop increase cannot be sustained longer than that without causing a serious degradation in the capabilities of U.S. forces.
If the boosted troop presence does continue, the report predicts that "Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months, but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."
The harsh assessment of the Iraqi government comes when barbs are flying between Baghdad and Washington.
Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is among those who have called for Maliki to step down. Bush rose to Maliki's defense, and the prime minister lashed out at U.S. criticism, saying Wednesday during a visit to Syria that his country "can find friends elsewhere."
Maliki's authority has been eroded by a series of defections from his Cabinet and the withdrawal of support from groups that include a powerful faction led by anti-U.S. Shiite Muslim cleric and militia leader Muqtada Sadr.
One of the few factors working in Maliki's favor, one high-level intelligence official said, is that "it's difficult to see an obvious replacement."
The recent defections from the Maliki government reflect deep sectarian divisions that have pulled Iraq toward civil war -- a term the intelligence estimate does not employ.
In a bleak assessment of the prospects for reconciliation in Iraq, the report says fighting among Shiites over power and resources "probably will intensify"; that the Sunni Arab community "remains politically fragmented"; and that Kurdish leaders are focused on protecting their autonomy in the northern part of the country.
The report identifies two new elements that are further complicating political and military developments: expanded Sunni Arab opposition to Al Qaeda's affiliates in Iraq, and the widening expectation in the country of an eventual U.S. troop withdrawal.
