WASHINGTON — President Bush last week laid out an American role in the upcoming Mideast peace talks that challenges the accumulated wisdom of former secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and James A. Baker III and Presidents Carter and Clinton.
But sticking to his plan, which calls for a carefully limited U.S. role, may be harder than the president thinks, say current and former diplomats who have wrestled with the issue.
Bush has defied a diplomatic consensus reaching back decades by insisting that the United States would encourage Israelis and Palestinians and would offer ideas if asked, but wouldn't sit continuously at a negotiating table or establish positions of its own.
The conventional approach, based on more active American prodding, simply "hasn't worked," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice declared recently. In calling world leaders together for last week's conference in Annapolis, Md., the Bush administration made it clear it has its own approach.
But the administration's insistence on a limited U.S. role is one of the reasons behind widespread skepticism about the likelihood of the talks resulting in a peace agreement and an independent Palestinian state by the end of Bush's term. Most European and Arab diplomats believe a more activist U.S. stance is essential to progress.
At the same time, many diplomats and analysts acknowledge some advantages to a more circumscribed U.S. role, particularly in the opening stages of talks. But staying aloof becomes harder and harder, they say, as talks bog down, which is likely to happen.
A limited U.S. role puts the burden on the two sides to take responsibility for dealing with each other, rather than allowing each to negotiate with the United States, experts said. In past efforts, Palestinian and Israeli representatives have tailored their offers to please the American intermediaries, focusing less on compromises that might satisfy the opposition.
Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, said that in his view the central American role has sometimes allowed the two sides to get off easy and avoid grappling with the painful issues.
Israelis and Palestinians are "masters" at waiting and find it easier to avoid tough choices when a third party is involved, Erekat said in an appearance sponsored by the Brookings Institution's Saban Center.
"It's time for decisions -- Palestinian and Israeli, our decisions," Erekat said. "Nobody can make them for us."
