Kyoto's failures haunt new U.N. talks

The question is whether the nations meeting in Bali are willing to embrace such stringent measures.

"Countries are going to have to get serious," said Mark Bernstein, a USC energy and environmental policy expert.

For all its flaws, Kyoto was a remarkable agreement, forged at a time when there were still widespread doubts about the seriousness -- or even existence -- of global warming.

For the public, climate change was largely an exotic vision of environmental collapse that sounded at times like science fiction. But scientists, who understood the physics of rising temperatures, were already worried.

Delegates meeting in Kyoto, Japan, outlined an agreement that would last 15 years. It would establish a baseline for emissions somewhere in the past and require countries to meet reduction targets.

Because the industrialized world was responsible for the massive accumulation of greenhouse gases over the last 150 years, it would take the lead and bear the bulk of the costs.

A key element was to get the world to sign on together as a statement of resolve.

It immediately became apparent that regulating emissions from fossil fuels -- the lifeblood of the world economy -- would not be easy.

Developing countries, led by China and India, refused to agree to mandatory caps, arguing that their economies should not be punished for the pollution sins of the industrialized nations.

The Kyoto signatories agreed to exempt developing countries from pollution limits. That has amounted to 139 nations.

Today, the top nine major countries with the fastest-growing emissions are in the developing world.

Together, 10 developing countries increased their annual emissions by more than 5 billion metric tons, accounting for 75% of the growth in global carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2005, according to an analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Energy.

China's emissions grew 138% over that period, catching up to U.S. levels and setting a pace to double them in less than a decade. "They're going to have people gagging in the street," said John Weyant, an energy expert at Stanford University.

Letting the developing world avoid emissions caps put the burden on 38 industrial nations -- the United States, most of Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

One problem was picking a year to establish the emissions baseline.