A late date would have been least painful for countries with healthy economies. But that would have put the Eastern European countries at an enormous disadvantage because their economies had crashed and thus their baseline would have been too low.
The baseline was ultimately set at 1990 for most countries -- a time when the Eastern European economies were still intact.
As a result, 13 countries of the former Soviet bloc were essentially left free of a cap. Not including their illusory reductions, total carbon dioxide emissions from countries bound by Kyoto's caps have risen by more than 8%.
There have been a few bright spots: a 4% emissions cut in Denmark and a 7% drop in Sweden.
But there are many more failures.
Rising carbon levels
Japan: Emissions up 13% since 1990.
Canada: A 27% rise.
Spain: A 61% increase.
Outside the former Soviet bloc, only six of the 23 industrialized Kyoto countries have cut their carbon dioxide emissions since 1990 -- leaving few nations positioned to meet next year's reduction targets.
But even if all of the industrial countries could make their targets, the goals negotiated a decade ago now look tepid compared with the 50% cuts that U.N. scientists believe are necessary over the next 40 years.
"There was not a lot of science behind the targets," said Nathan Hultman, a professor of science, technology and international affairs at Georgetown University. "It was kind of pulling a number out of a hat and saying, 'What do we think we can achieve in 10 to 15 years?' "
Michael Wara, a Stanford researcher who studies the economics of greenhouse-gas emissions, was more blunt: "The Kyoto Protocol really just scratches at the surface of the cuts we need."
All of these problems pale in comparison to the biggest of all: The world's most prolific polluter, the United States, has refused to ratify Kyoto. Australia also refused, although it has recently signaled that it intends to ratify next year.
The Clinton administration signed the treaty but never sought ratification in the Senate, which had unanimously passed a resolution opposing any agreement that would seriously harm the U.S. economy or would not set reduction timetables and targets for developing countries.
Today, the United States is responsible for about a fifth of the world's annual carbon dioxide emissions. Its emissions jumped 20% between 1990 and 2005, according to U.N. figures.
