Cars are set to get dramatically better mileage in the next decade under the energy bill that's expected to get final congressional approval today. But for drivers hoping to see sport utility vehicles go the way of the dinosaurs and find dealerships stocked with hybrids and high-tech fuel-cell vehicles, the future may be a long way off.
The legislation requires that new mileage standards take effect in the 2011 model year with modest increases, ramping up to 35 miles per gallon in 2020.
That's about one-third better fuel economy than current levels, but thanks to legislative wrangling by the automakers, the new rules offer them opportunities to comply by simply tweaking the same kinds of cars and trucks they produce today, rather than make sweeping changes.
Expect subtle improvements such as direct fuel injection, lightweight aluminum body panels and electric assisted power steering. And thanks to credits for ethanol use provided by the bill, companies are planning to increase their production of inefficient trucks that consume the corn-based fuel, even though ethanol isn't sold in many states, including California.
"This is an important first step, but it's not a panacea," said Jim Kliesch, senior analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "In fact, the technology is here today to exceed 35 mpg."
Paul Portney, who as chairman of a vehicle fuel-efficiency committee at the National Academy of Sciences wrote a landmark study of fuel economy regulation, said the legislation "may allow carmakers plenty of chances to game the system." His panel concluded that carmakers could reach a fleetwide average of 37 mpg by 2017.
Under the new regulation, the fuel-economy average for all makers selling cars in the U.S. would be 35 mpg, rather than the company-by-company approach currently applied. According to the Transportation Department, the 2007 combined rating for all automakers is 26.4 mpg.
As a result, some manufacturers, particularly those selling smaller cars, will probably be asked to meet a higher standard, while the bar may be lower for those with fleets heavy on trucks and large passenger cars.
A recent study by the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute indicated that Honda Motor Co. vehicles would have to get an average of 39.2 mpg by 2020, while the Big Three U.S. automakers may only need to reach 33.2 mpg.
