CRITICS' reviews, box-office performance, industry screenings and early awards have helped whittle the list of Oscar best picture contenders. Though that means the top race is clearer, unpredictable turns are still ahead. The coming guild awards and Golden Globes will have a sizable effect on which five films emerge as nominees on Jan. 22.
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BEST PICTURE
FAVORITES
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Sweeney Todd"
"There Will Be Blood"
SPOTLIGHT: Oscar voters sometimes nominate foreign-language films such as "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and "Il Postino" in the best picture race to prove how highbrow they can be. This year "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is a compelling choice for two reasons. It's a poignant, skillfully crafted tale of an almost totally paralyzed book editor that earned real-life artist Julian Schnabel the best director prize at Cannes and it has some key members of Steven Spielberg's team behind it (producer Kathleen Kennedy and cinematographer Janusz Kaminski).
POSSIBLE
"Charlie Wilson's War"
"The Great Debaters"
"Hairspray"
"3:10 to Yuma"
SPOTLIGHT: The last time a movie like "The Great Debaters" was nominated for best picture was 1989, with "Dead Poets Society." Some Oscar pundits wonder if Hollywood -- and the whole world, for that matter -- hasn't become too cynical in the 21st century to rally behind a movie with the same, gung-ho message for students: Hey, kids, learning is not only fun, it can change your life!
LONG SHOTS
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Enchanted"
"Gone Baby Gone"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Zodiac"
SPOTLIGHT: Big, feel-good musicals used to be nominated often, including many from Disney, including "Mary Poppins" and "Beauty and the Beast." "It's obvious, but inescapable: 'Enchanted' is as good as its name," cheered the Los Angeles Times review. Moviegoers and even cranky film critics have been spellbound so far. Oscar voters next?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
FAVORITES
Austria, "The Counterfeiters"; Stefan Ruzowitzky, director
Brazil, "The Year My Parents Went on Vacation"; Cao Hamburger, director
Czech Republic, "I Served the King of England"; Jiri Menzel, director
Cuba, "The Silly Age"; Pavel Giroud, director
