WASHINGTON — For months, the Bush administration's hopes for stability in Pakistan rested on the rising influence of Benazir Bhutto. Her death Thursday shattered those hopes and threatened to paralyze U.S. priorities there: fighting terrorism, ensuring the safety of the country's nuclear weapons and preventing regional chaos.
The administration had a huge stake in the pro-Western former prime minister. U.S. officials were banking that Bhutto's party would win enough seats in upcoming elections to become an effective force in the government again. In Pakistan, her death leaves the party in disarray, and the elections in doubt. For the White House, it leaves a void that will take time and work to fill.
The assassination dealt a blow to an even closer U.S. ally, President Pervez Musharraf, who now may lose the electoral blessing he needs to restore his sagging credibility and legitimacy. Worse, many Pakistanis hold the president and those around him responsible for the assassination, if only because they failed to prevent it.
The setback comes at an especially bad time for the United States, with Islamic militants resurgent in neighboring Afghanistan and focusing more intently on attacking Pakistan. The United States has been spending about $1 billion a year in Pakistan.
"A bad day for Pakistan, a bad day for the United States," said Daniel Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations, who was a senior State Department official until earlier this year. "We're going to be paying a price for it for a while."
U.S. officials said their foremost concern was the possibility of civil upheaval.
One official said the greatest risk was that violence would prove too much even for the Pakistani army, which plays a pivotal role in keeping the country together. Until last month, Musharraf was the military chief of staff, a position he renounced only under intense pressure from domestic and foreign critics.
With Bhutto dead and hopes for an alliance between her and Musharraf now gone, U.S. officials must decide which Pakistani leaders can help wage war on Islamic militants and stabilize the nuclear-armed country.
Even Musharraf has failed to show results on many fronts. For instance, Osama bin Laden, who many believe has found shelter in Pakistan, is still at large. And some U.S. military intelligence officials believe that a significant portion of the billions of dollars in U.S. aid since the Sept. 11 attacks has not been spent on the "war on terror."
