But for Kurds, this year presents a historic opportunity they won't part with willingly.
If Kirkuk were annexed to their region, Kurds would no longer be economically beholden to the rest of Iraq. Without Kirkuk, however, Kurdistan is not an economically viable state.
Once a distant dream carried in the heart of Kurdish \o7peshmerga \f7fighters as they battled Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's army in the mountains, full independence is now tantalizingly within reach.
If the timetable leading to the referendum is not followed, Kirkuk will be thrust into chaos, said Talabani, the provincial councilman. "It will be a civil war," he said. "Worse than Baghdad, because it will be a battle of ethnicities."
For nationalist Arabs and minority Turkmens, meanwhile, Kurdish appropriation of Kirkuk would signify the first step toward Iraq's disintegration. Turkmens do not want to become part of an independent Kurdistan, but they don't want to be controlled by Baghdad either. Most Arabs want to remain part of a unified Iraq.
As the various constituencies maneuver before the referendum, the issue of just who has the right to vote is emerging as a major point of contention.
In 1957, the year of Kirkuk's last reliable census, Turkmens made up 40% of the population, whereas Kurds composed 35%, Arabs 24% and Christians 1%. In the surrounding province, Kurds were a majority, constituting 55% of the inhabitants.
During the 1970s, however, Hussein forcibly removed 250,000 Kurds from Kirkuk, giving their property to Arabs in an effort to "Arabize" the city and its oil. Many of the new residents were Shiites moved here from villages in the south.
Since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, the demographics have shifted again. Thousands of Arabs and Turkmens have left because of political pressure and violence. And as many as 350,000 Kurds have come to Kirkuk, Iraqi and American officials say. In dilapidated camps throughout the city, thousands of Kurds now wait for property claims to be resolved; Kurdish officials complain that the government in Baghdad is slowing the process.
The Kurds want Arabs who moved here under Hussein to return to the south, and the recent administrative moves are aimed at removing them as potential voters in the referendum.
