Northern Iraq seen as next front in war

Kurdish officials have recently proposed a cash incentive for Arabs, compensation of about $19,000 for each family willing to give up property and voting rights in the city. The tens of thousands of Arabs affected would be allowed to stay -- though required to live in other accommodations -- but would not be able to vote on Kirkuk's future, the officials say.

"I don't believe they have the right to vote in the referendum," said Adnan Mufti, the powerful speaker of Kurdistan's regional parliament. Even Arabs born in Kirkuk to parents who came from the south will be ineligible, he said. "It's the mistake of their fathers."

Arabs and Turkmens accuse Kurdish politicians of gerrymandering and administrative jujitsu. "Many of the Kurds who returned to Kirkuk are not the original residents of the city," said Abass Ahmed, a 60-year-old Turkmen. "They are actually Kurds from other Kurdish regions."

Because of the demographic shifts and the Sunni Arab boycott of the 2005 election, Arabs already have little representation in the city. Kurds control 26 of the 41 provincial council seats as well as the army, police and intelligence services in the city.

Iraqi security forces here mostly strike against Arab neighborhoods, said Amin, the Iraqi commander. But this is because Ansar al Sunna and the Islamic Army in Iraq are primarily Arab groups, he added.

But residents and international observers accuse the Kurds of abusing Arabs and Turkmens and holding them in secret and largely unsupervised prison facilities.

"We are being insulted especially in the Arab villages and the Arab neighborhoods," said Obeidi, the Sunni Arab sheik. "I think, for the Kurdish forces, it's like revenge."

These alleged human rights violations inflame the situation, analysts warn and local politicians confirm.

"We are all arming ourselves," a politician from Kirkuk recently told the International Crisis Group. "We are afraid. There is talk of civil war. Anything could start it."

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roug@latimes.com

A special correspondent in Sulaymaniya, Iraq, contributed to this report.